Understanding the nuclear terrorist threat

Reading the January 27 posting of Tomdispatch.com, I found myself agreeing with many of the points there about the effects of the scare-mongering and unilateral military moves the US administration has engaged in since 9-11. But I was bothered by both the tendency in that piece to ignore second-order effects of actions (it minimized the effects of a hypothetical disappearance of terrorist groups worldwide), and more so by its disparagement of Charles Gibson for leading off a presidential candidates' debate with a question on what the candidates would do to head off a nuclear terrorist attack on the US.

So I wrote to Tom. Here is the body of my argument to him:
"(In) disparaging Gibson's first question in that presidential candidates' debate, you have underestimated the ease with which a determined terrorist group can acquire a nuclear fission bomb, and the damage that such a bomb detonated in a US city would do. If you do some research (see the websites of the Kennedy School's Belfer Center, or the Nuclear Threat Initiative, or the Citizens to Stop Nuclear Terrorism), you'll learn that Osama bin Laden has long been trying to acquire nuclear weapons and has publicly stated his intention to use them against the US. As you may know, it is relatively easy to build a bomb once you get either HEU or plutonium (easier with HEU, but smaller package with plutonium) - no need to buy or steal a ready-made bomb. There are 140 or so nuclear sites (research reactors, etc.) in dozens of countries where Al Qaeda can go to get the material it needs. Once stolen or built, it is easy to get a bomb into an American city, despite the silly assertions by DHS that radiation detectors might prevent this.

Imagine if one detonates in New York City, in Washington, or in the Port of Long Beach. The RAND Corp. recently did a simulation of the latter case. Immediate damage: 60,000 lives (it would be worse in NYC), a trillion dollars damage, loss of key trading capacity with East Asia, loss of major share of oil refining capacity, possible collapse of insurance industry, etc. But the downstream effect on the political stability of the US would be even scarier. If we got a Patriot Act and a host of other restrictions, illegal eavesdropping, and renewed aggressiveness internationally out of 9-11, imagine what we'd get after Long Beach is wiped out - and if Osama says, "Oh, by the way, I have four or five more already hidden in US cities. If you don't do X, Y, Z, etc., they will start being detonated." The reaction in America would be nothing at all like the aftermath of another set of airliners crashing into buildings.

Gibson was entirely right to lead off with the question on nuclear terrorism - it is really that serious.

Stunningly, even Bush has said it is our biggest threat - but then not treated it as such. Yet there is a well-conceived plan (see links at the Belfer Center or NTI sites mentioned above) to lock down nuclear materials worldwide, and its cost is piddling in comparison to the risk-adjusted cost of a nuclear bomb going off in a city.

I might add that this also means pretty much any city, not only a US one. Simply consider the implications and how both the victim country and the US leadership would react, knowing there could be more but not knowing the source or the next target, and perhaps (in the case of a bomb in a country not friendly to the US) the confusion wrought by inevitable claims that it was a US bomb, or an Israeli bomb, or a (fill in the blank of your nuclear-armed enemy) bomb.

Please give this some research and thought; I did, and the facts are so compelling that it got me involved in efforts to persuade Congress to mandate a crash program to lock down (and help others to lock down) all nuclear materials and bombs worldwide. It does not require scare-mongering publicity, nor further restrictions on our liberties, nor very much money. And it may buy us enough time to correct the mistakes we've made that have engendered this threat in the first place.

John Macgregor
Citizens to Stop Nuclear Terrorism"

What can you do to raise awareness about nuclear terrorism?

When you see an article in the paper about nuclear terrorism, you can write a letter to the editor. The Citizens to Stop Nuclear Terrorism website can help you do that. Click here for help.

You can also do what one of our board members, Scott Burger, did and tailor your response to a specific news story.

As Scott said, As Americans watch the Presidential debates, keep this question in mind: What will you do to stop nuclear terrorism?

His awareness raising entry was on a regional blog. Anything you write, in any venue, will make a difference.

Click here to read Scott's entry.

We Can Make a Difference

Citizens to Stop Nuclear Terrorism cosponsored with the Richmond World Affairs Council a presentation on the threat of nuclear terrorism.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported:

Half a million people would die instantly if terrorists set off a nuclear bomb in a city like Richmond, a nuclear terrorism expert says.

A devastating nuclear terrorist attack somewhere is likely, Harvard University's Graham Allison warned last night.

But governments around the world can stop such an attack before it occurs, he said.

You can read the entire article and watch the presentation by clicking here.

Personal Memories

September 11th brings back many memories for me. At the time of the attack I was living in Arlington, Virginia and working in Washington, DC. As I was leaving the car, to walk to my office from the parking garage, I heard on the radio about something wrong in Manhattan. By the time I made it to my office everyone was gathered around the TV in our conference room. We watched in horror as the second plane hit the World Trade Center building. Then news came on about something happening at the Pentagon. I had just driven close to the Pentagon on my way to work. My thoughts went to my friends who were working there. I had a friend who was in the Navy Annex teaching a class and was one of the first on the scene of the devastation. My son had a friend who worked in the wing of the Pentagon that was hit but had overslept that morning and was just getting off the subway. My best girlfriend's husband was a pilot for United Airlines. He was not on the United planes that were used as weapons. Personally I was very lucky.

They closed our building. As we walked outside, the streets were filled with people wandering around. It was as if we were all in shock.

We have all heard about the video messages that have been recently sent by Osama Bin Laden. ABC news says on their website, "Mike McConnell, the director of National Intelligence, said it is essential that the government handle all of these tapes with caution, and he assures Americans the government remains vigilant. 'We are safer, but not safe,' McConnell said."

We know that terrorists have attempted to obtain nuclear weapons and we also know that the nuclear material around the world is not currently secured. Is there anything that we as citizens can do to make the situation better? The answer is yes.

You can learn what you can do at the Citizens to Stop Nuclear Terrorism website.

Today I am thinking about how much worse it would have been if the devastation had been caused by a nuclear device.

Don't wait for someone else to act. Think about the people you care about. You can make a difference.

Danger

There is the danger that Americans sleep while terrorist cells plan how to carry out an attack against the United States with a nuclear device, with nuclear materials stolen or bought.

It is the dedicated task of Citizens to Stop Nuclear Terrorism to ensure that radical militants bent on destroying the American way of life never get access to materials required to launch the most devastating terrorist strike in all of history.